There are no active watches, warnings or advisories for Caledonia (Vermont).
000 fxus61 kbtv 210203 afdbtv area forecast discussion national weather service burlington vt 1003 pm edt sun may 20 2012 .synopsis... high pressure over the northeast into monday morning...sliding offshore and giving way to a coastal low moving up the east coast late on monday. a frontal boundary will traverse the region tuesday and tuesday night. high pressure for late wednesday night into thursday...followed by a front on friday and friday night. && .near term /until 6 am monday morning/... as of 957 pm edt sunday...moisture feed from the atlantic ocean is already visible on water vapor imagery this evening as ridge of high pressure moves eastward and upper level low digs across the southeastern united states. this is evidenced in high cirrus clouds moving into the area and continued increase in dew points this evening...now in the 50s to near 60 degrees. therefore...overnight low temperatures will be several degrees warmer than sunday mornings. looking at upper 50s to near 60 in the champlain and saint lawrence valleys...low/mid 50s for the rest of vermont...and some upper 40s in the adirondacks. && .short term /6 am monday morning through tuesday night/... as of 407 pm edt sunday...going into monday...clds will begin to work into the cwa from the south as low pushes up from the delmarva region. do expect much of the cwa thru morning not to see any precip...but by the aftnoon...clds will over spread cwa along with lgt -rw. best chances south closest to low initially...but with cwa seeing some sunshine during the day wk instability does set up which may trigger a few trw thru early evening. frnt approaching from the great lks region monday ngt will push low off the coast by tuesday morning. lingering showers overngt monday...w/ focus over e vt. main wx feature for the short term will be the cd fropa for tuesday and tues ngt. mdls continue to show frnt slow to mv thru the area. instability ahead of frnt will trigger trw...some of which could produce lcl heavy downpours. li/s down to near -2 to -4 and sbcape near 600-1000 j/kg. overall qpf for both systems will bring 0.40" to 0.70" of rain with some possible hir amts near some of these trw. main transition of frntl precip occurs tuesday aftnoon/early evening. have carried thunder thru early evening tapering to showers thru 12z wednesday. && .long term /wednesday through sunday/... as of 431 pm edt sunday...a weak ridge of high pressure will build into the region on wednesday and remains over the region through friday. will go with a mainly dry forecast from wednesday through most of friday. ecmwf model suggests some moisture moving northward into the region on thursday...but gfs model not showing this...so will go with the gfs model at this point. forecaster confidence is lower for later friday afternoon through saturday...as ecmwf and gfs models showing some significant differences with regards to a cold front moving into the region. gfs model has a cold front coming into the region friday night...while the ecmwf model is slower and does not bring this cold front through until during the day on saturday. have put in chance pops for showers and thunderstorms late friday afternoon across the adirondacks and saint lawrence valley late friday afternoon and early friday night. have gone with slight chance pops for rain showers from the champlain valley eastward friday night. ecmwf model is much slower with this cold front and does not bring this front through the region until saturday...so have opted to put in slight chance pops for showers on saturday in case the ecmwf model is correct. ecmwf and gfs models in good agreement on the forecast for saturday night and sunday...with cooler and drier weather across the region. && .aviation /02z monday through friday/... through 00z tuesday...strong region of high pressure centered over the gulf of maine remains in control of wx conditions across vermont and northern new york tonight through monday morning. this system will provide for generally clear skies (few-sct250 associated with cirrus clouds) through 18z monday. light south to se winds will prevail tonight...generally 5kts or less except locally around 10 kts at rut. sfc winds resume from the south during the day monday generally 6-10 kts. by late monday aftn...the deep-layer ridge weakens and moves eastward...allowing deeper south flow to bring increasing moisture and weak instability to the north country. vfr ceilings will develop...but may also see some scattered rain showers and a slight chance of a tstm 21-00z for rut...slk...mss with intervals of mvfr cigs/vsby possible. best chance of tstms likely across nrn ny. outlook 00z tuesday through friday... 00z tuesday through 12z tuesday...isold showers or a tstm monday night associated with increasing moisture from the south. mainly vfr...but local/brief mvfr ceilings in precipitation. 12z tuesday through 06z wednesday...areas of mvfr/ifr possible in showers and thunderstorms as a weak cold front moves southeast from canada. 06z wednesday through friday...mainly vfr as high pressure builds back atop the region. && .btv watches/warnings/advisories... vt...none. ny...none. && $$ synopsis...jn near term...muccilli short term...jn long term...wgh aviation...banacos/wgh